Obama, Romney looking angry

Image Credit: Associated Press

According to the poll released yesterday by Fox News, President Obama is currently leading challenger Mitt Romney by a 9-point margin. The poll shows Obama taking 49 percent of the vote, while Romney would only take 40 percent if the election were held today.


This is a significant increase from Fox News’ June horse-race poll, which showed Obama at 45 percent and Romney at 41 percent.


Obama’s advantage in this latest poll is mostly a result of increased support from independent voters, who now favor him over Romney by an 11-point margin. 30 percent of independents remain undecided.


54 percent of those polled said that they had a favorable view of the candidate, his highest favorability rating in this poll in over a year. According to the poll, this is nearly as high as the 59 percent approval rating reported shortly after the 2008 election.


CNN’s Thursday presidential poll has also shown strong support for the president, with 52 percent of registered voters indicating that they would choose President Obama, while 45 percent said they would vote for Romney if the election were held today.


The CNN poll also showed that Obama’s approval rating is staying relatively constant at 50 percent. 47 percent of those polled disapproved of the President’s job performance.


56 percent of respondents had a favorable view of the President in the CNN poll, while only 42 percent were unfavorable. These numbers did not look as good for Romney, who had a 47 percent favorability rating and a 48 percent unfavorable rating.


These poll results seem to indicate that the President is making inroads with independent voters. The percentage of voters that would pick Obama over Romney has steadily increased over the last month.


RealClearPolitics now shows an Obama lead of 4.4 points in its polling average. This estimate includes the CNN and Fox polls.

The FiveThirtyEight estimate is now showing that Obama has a 73.3 percent chance of winning the general election, up significantly from a month ago.


A recent Fox News poll of 912 registered voters conducted  on June 24-26, before the Supreme Court’s healthcare ruling, shows President Barack Obama leading challenger Mitt Romney 45-40, with 10% undecided.

In addition, the poll found that 47% of respondents thought Obama “will do a better job looking out for you and your family during tough economic times,” compared to only 36% who felt that way about Romney.

Obama also lead Romney by a 14-point (41-27) margin when asked which candidate had a clear plan to improve the economy.

The poll also showed a presidential approval rating of 48% and a disapproval rating of 43% with 9% undecided.

Finally, the poll found that 54% of respondents favored the Obama administration’s recent decision to stop deportation and grant work permits to undocumented immigrants under the age of 30 who were brought here as children. Only 36% opposed this decision.

The poll was conducted among randomly selected landline and cellular phones and had a 3-point margin of error.

I’ve mentioned before that I find national presidential polling to be somewhat pointless. However, I always find it interesting when Fox News releases a poll that shows Obama with a wider lead than the averages of respected poll aggregators like Real Clear Politics (3.6-point lead) or the Huffington Post (1.5-point lead).

Even though the last post I wrote about polling basically said that we should ignore the national polls and really only pay attention to the state polls, I just found an interesting tidbit that I would like to share with the class.

The 5/16 Fox News poll of 913 registered voters showed President Obama leading Mitt Romney 46 to 39, a 7 point lead. This poll also showed an approval rating of +2 for the President. The poll was conducted between 5/13 and 5/15 on landlines and cell phone, and had a margin of error of 3 points.

If Fox News shows the President leading by 7 points, what’s Rasmussen’s excuse?

I’m going to go dig deeper into this poll now and I’ll update if I find anything interesting.

Update: One last interesting thing, the pollsters asked “what is the one thing Barack Obama has done as president that did the most damageto the economy?”

12% of respondents said it was the health care law. I think this indicates that a pretty big chunk of registered voters don’t entirely understand the health care law. Most of its provisions haven’t even taken effect yet, and the ones that have shouldn’t have a negative impact on the economy.

The only major provision that has taken effect allows young people to stay on their parents’ insurance until they’re 26. If anything, this is good for the economy because it allows young people to spend a higher proportion of their income on consumption, thereby increasing demand. Your thoughts?